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In the last 5 years, we've completed...
Dam Breach Analyses
Inundation Mapping Projects
EAPs/EPPs
Hydraulics/Reservoir Routing Evaluations
Advancing Dam Safety through Probabilistic Dam Breach Analysis
Client
EBMUD
Project Location
Camanche Reservoir, Sierra Nevada Foothills, CA
Timeframe
2017-2019
Safeguarding Communities with Data-Driven Risk Assessment
Camanche Reservoir, a critical water resource in the Sierra Nevada foothills of Northern California, serves multiple roles in flood control, water supply, recreation, and hydroelectric power generation. Operated by the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD), its infrastructure includes a main dam, a spillway, and six auxiliary dikes. Dike 2—an earthen embankment stretching 5,750 feet with a clay core—required a state-of-the-art risk analysis to strengthen emergency planning and protect public safety.
To meet this challenge, Kleinschmidt partnered with EBMUD to execute a groundbreaking probabilistic dam breach analysis, exceeding the limitations of traditional deterministic methods. This approach provided a more accurate understanding of potential failure scenarios, improving flood risk mitigation strategies and emergency preparedness.
Transforming Uncertainty into Actionable Insights
A conventional deterministic dam breach analysis was first performed, producing inundation maps for fair-weather failure conditions. However, given the significant uncertainty in breach parameters, EBMUD opted for a more advanced, probabilistic approach. Kleinschmidt deployed the Monte Carlo method to simulate thousands of potential breach scenarios using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) version 6.3.1 with McBreach software. This approach quantified uncertainty by randomly sampling breach parameters from statistical distributions, generating a comprehensive range of possible outcomes. The resulting peak discharge probabilities were integrated into inundation mapping, offering decision-makers a more reliable and data-driven risk assessment. Kleinschmidt developed a ‘truncated’ 2D hydraulic model focusing solely on Dike 2 and its immediate downstream areas to enhance computational efficiency. This modification drastically cut simulation times—from eight hours per run to just 10–11 seconds—making large-scale probabilistic analysis practical and impactful.
Engineering the Future of Breach Modeling
A Technical Advisory Group (TAG) comprising EBMUD and Kleinschmidt experts collaborated to establish statistical distributions for breach parameters. Leveraging industry best practices, empirical regression equations, and site-specific conditions, the team refined critical modeling elements, including:
- Breach Bottom Width: A log-normal distribution ensured accurate modeling of potential breach widths, capturing even low-probability extreme failures.
- Breach Formation Time: Modeled through erosion rate rather than total failure duration, creating a more realistic progression model.
- Breach Side Slopes: Defined using a normal distribution guided by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) recommendations.
- Weir and Piping Coefficients: Calibrated with probabilistic sampling to reflect the embankment’s composition and probable failure mechanisms.
- Initial Piping Elevation: Modeled uniformly within the lower 75% of the reservoir’s water column to reflect potential weak points.
Critical Insights:
Uncovering Hidden Risks
The probabilistic analysis, comprising 30,000 simulations over 87 hours, delivered game-changing insights into dam failure scenarios. Compared to the initial deterministic evaluation, the study revealed:
- Underestimated Failure Magnitudes: Deterministic assumptions significantly under-predicted potential breach sizes and peak discharges.
- Hydraulic Influence of Dike Storage: The large volume of water impounded by Dike 2 played a more significant role in breach progression than previously recognized.
- Refined Breach Parameters for Emergency Planning: Revised deterministic inputs—guided by probabilistic findings—ensured a more realistic and conservative approach to flood risk mitigation.
Kleinschmidt and EBMUD advanced dam safety beyond industry standards by integrating probabilistic modeling. The refined inundation maps and enhanced breach parameter estimates will be invaluable tools in emergency preparedness, regulatory compliance, and public safety planning.
Leading the Charge in Dam Safety Innovation
This project emphasizes Kleinschmidt’s leadership in pioneering dam safety analysis and hydrologic risk assessment. Through collaborative innovation and state-of-the-art modeling, we provide clients like EBMUD with data-driven insights to safeguard communities, infrastructure, and natural resources.